 - Last login: 13 days agoRichTatum
- Rich is a 40 year old married guy from Muskegon, Michigan, USA.
- Likes 182 pages, 10 videos, 6 photos • 17 fans
- Member since Aug 31, 2006
Pentecostal GodBlogger looking for good sites to comment on and to improve my technical skills. I am an online video editor at work (http://ctcourses.com/) and an inveterate fiction reader by night.
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The Monty Hall problem
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Jul 28, 2007 8:13pm
1 review
•http://www.curiouser.co.uk/monty/mont...
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Remember the Monty Hall game show where you got to choose one of three curtains, and behind one curtain was a car, but the other two were goats? When you've made your first choice, the game-master reveals one of the other two curtains, which always contains a goat. You are given the option to switch your pick if you want. The counter-intuitive strategy to have a better chance to win this game is to change your first pick to the other unrevealed curtain. Intuitively, you feel you still have a 50/50 chance by sticking with your original choice, but in reality your odds have improved to a 66% chance of winning the car if you switched. I played the game twenty times both ways (switching, vs. not switching). Switching saw me winning 60%. Not switching saw me winning only 35% of the time. That's with a fairly low sample.
Fun!
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